Tropical Storm Haikui (30W)

Tropical Storm Haikui (30W), known as Salome in the Philippines, reached tropical storm strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) at 06:00 UTC today, Friday November 10 . Haikui is located approximately 200 mi (320 km) west-northwest of Manila, Philippines, in the South China Sea. The system tracked across the Philippines as a tropical depression, bringing heavy rain to central parts of the country leading to some localised flooding . Classes were suspended across the Manila metropolitan area in anticipation of the storm’s effect . The system also delayed some international and regional flights. The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has lifted all tropical cyclone warnings, though alerts for heavy rain and flash flooding remain in place in mountainous areas including Cordillera, and along coastal areas of Luzon. The storm is expected to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility tomorrow, Saturday November 11, as it tracks northwest into the central South China Sea. Environmental conditions are favourable for some intensification in the coming days, with the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) forecasting the system to reach a peak intensity around 18:00 UTC tomorrow, Saturday November 11, where it is forecast to have maximum sustained wind speeds of 78 mph (126 km/hr), equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane on the SSHWS . The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) forecasts the system to reach a peak intensity of 63 mph (102 km/hr), equivalent to a strong tropical storm on the SSHWS. Haikui is forecast to gradually weaken as it turns westward and then south-westward around the southern periphery of the sub-tropical ridge and approaches Vietnam. Hainan, the southernmost province of China, is included within the current CMA and JTWC cones of uncertainty and may experience tropical storm force winds if the system tracks more northerly than the currently forecast . The system is forecast to make landfall along the coast of Vietnam as a mid-strength tropical storm on the SSHWS around 18:00 UTC on Tuesday November 14. Haikui would be second named storm to impact central or southern Vietnam in the past two weeks. Typhoon Damrey made landfall in southern Vietnam on November 4 and destroyed more than 120,000 homes. For more information on the impacts of Damrey in Vietnam, please see the separate event summary here. The JTWC notes generally good agreement in the track and intensity forecast in the next 36 hours, with a large degree of uncertainty and low confidence in the forecast beyond 36 hours as the system turns and heads towards Vietnam .

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November 2017


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